Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Adam's parents had a rocky marriage, and they split up when he was around seven years old. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. Strikeouts are booming like never before. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Enter your email address to get a new one. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. We use cookies to improve your experience. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright may have ended a solid career. Keep your fingers crossed, St. Louis fans.. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? Privacy Policy Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Adam Wainwright's age is 41. Im not sure its a good idea for Wainwright to proceed with his WBC plans, but the Cardinals wont stop him from going. Adam Wainwright 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA 3x All-Star, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 rings Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; he's going to be 36 in a few months and he's logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). He entered Thursday 16-7 on. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. NeverSober1900. Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. Please contact us. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Though hes overcome health scares and worked hard to expand his arsenal to become less reliant upon his cutter, Jansen has continued to take Dodgers fans on a rollercoaster this season. No Cy's (albeit 4 top 3 finishes). He is known for being a Baseball Player. . But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. For a five-year span from 2007-2011, CC Sabathia was regarded as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and he took three different teams to the postseason, winning a ring with the 2009 Yankees. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. Injury? His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. As noted above, for the past few election cycles, Ive turned away from reliever JAWS in favor of a hybrid metric using WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. Please logout and login again. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. Leg and glute stiffness that limited his leg drive, the aftereffect of recent back spasms, and a torn finger blister. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. That being said, the question I had is what a retirement for Adam Wainwright . Are there baseball seasons good enough to get Adam Wainwright past Dwight Gooden? Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. Wainwright attributed the late 2022 freefall to a hitch in his delivery after hed been struck on the knee by a batted ball. Wainwright could become the sixth to add the Hall of Fame to their resume. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. His 2.2 WAR, meanwhile, edged him closer to the career standard (73.3). Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. . Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? But its just not going to happen anymore the way pitchers are used now and the way free agency is and (how) careers go. The only active pitchers behind Wainwright (2,375 2/3) in the 2,000-inning club are 36-year-old David Price (2,103 1/3), 35-year-old Johnny Cueto (2,034 1/3) and 32-year-old Madison Bumgarner (2,034). Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. 5th stage: 60-day IL. Actually, its two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. A couple of guys are sore but its OK, everything is fine, nothing to worry about, dont know why the media is making a fuss over this, were just being careful, just holding the pitcher back by a day to be on the safe side, hes looking great, hes getting his work in, theres no need to push it. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. Not an injury issue? Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. But at least it wont be historically egregious. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Ive covered the Mets for a variety of outlets since 1997. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. After slaying the October beast that had haunted him for so many years, Kershaw pitched reasonably well through the first three months of the season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 2.98 FIP the latter his lowest mark since 2016 in 106.1 innings. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. SUMMARY 2022 Career WAR 1.8 46.7 W 11 195 L 12 117 ERA 3.71 3.38 G 32 457 GS Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. Adam Wainwright never won a Cy Young Award. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. Let's take a look at Flaherty. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Sales efficiency numbers are superb he has a 2.99 career ERA, a 1.054 WHIP, a 4.96 K:BB ratio, and hes working on five straight All-Star trips. Given the way hes been pitching as of late, thats certainly not farfetched. Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. deGrom has already racked up significant value even while qualifying for the ERA title only five times in eight seasons. The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. ago. When the Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the games history. Its early in spring training. The Cardinals trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, but St. Louis rallied to win its 12th straight, 8-5. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. But the guys that have got in recently just have been the best at the craft for a decade, Wainwright said. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. Madison Bumgarner is still just 27 years old, but hes already etched his name into baseball lore as one of the greatest big-game pitchers of all-time. But he didnt become a full-time starter until his age-24 season, and hes now pitched for a quarter of the American League teams. Adam Wainwright biography. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 28: Adam Wainwright #50 of, the St. Louis Cardinals applauds after a defensive play by Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 28, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. But if it wasn't for . by Retrosheet. Your email address will not be published. The hot air balloon . A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. Wainwrights candidacy as an elite pitcher of his time should strengthen during the five years between his retirement and his first appearance on a Hall of Fame ballot. It happens a lot. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Sales unconventional windup seems to leave open the idea of Tommy John surgery or at least a serious injury, but he has averaged 30 starts per season since entering the rotation in 12. He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. Hes endured shoulder miseries and a strained oblique. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. Its an unfortunate injury that was sustained to of all places his throwing shoulder. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. And right now, he simply isnt there. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. Both legends are heading off into the sunset, their final stop before they end up in Cooperstown in just a few short years. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. His contract with Washington will keep him in a uniform through 2021, and by then, he should have a strong case. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). MILWAUKEE -- Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina played their final game in the majors, a disappointing 2-0 loss to eliminate them from the Wild Card round. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburgh's Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. Adam Wainwright strikes out Chas McCormick swinging in the top of the 1st inning, one of his two strikeouts over three innings of work. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. But Adam Wainwright's story also isn't complete. The greatest lineups ever? Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. Wainos going to do that whether hes here or not, and thats a trust thing that Im not concerned with.. Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. 4th stage: The latest MRI showed something that was a little off, and we think its smart to do more tests and let him go get a second opinion. Sure there are. This year, however, the biggest stars of Opening Day will be three players in Cardinals jerseys who all have legitimate shots of someday being in baseball's Hall of Fame themselves. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. However, not all stories have happy endings. Don't miss out - sign up for our newsletters! Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. Of course, Wainwright and the Cardinals gave it the nothing to see here treatment. After suffering a setback around the trade deadline, he only returned to throwing on August 25; the Mets are holding out hope that the 33-year-old righty can rejoin them by mid-September. At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. In the spirit of giving my readers what they want, heres a lightning round, where Ill keep things uncharacteristically brief. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. 230-143, 3.70 ERA, 2,788 strikeouts, 117 adjusted ERA. At age 33, hes signed for another four years after this campaign, so he should have sufficient time to make a run at 3,000 strikeouts and another Cy Young award. On Saturday, June 11, 25,000 fans, ages 16 and older, will take home one of their replica . Sabermetrics lover. (approx 1 - 2 per week). Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. pre-2008 adjustment) | 39.5 Peak fWAR | 48.8 fJAWS, +0.3 fJAWS). I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. Yadier Molina is arguably one of the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. Heres what Bowden wrote: Mozeliak was cautious in his comments and reminded me that the right-hander threw only 36 innings last year. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukees Luis Urias in the fourth inning.